Datos climáticos y prácticas recomendadas para proyectar cambios en la distribución de especies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14522/darwiniana.2023.111.1094Palabras clave:
Datos climáticos, dispersión, ensambles, incertidumbre climática, modelos climáticos, reducción de escala, significancia de las proyeccionesResumen
El cambio climático es un proceso que impacta en todos los sistemas socio-ambientales, adquiriendo rasgos específicos en cada región. Para comprender y proyectar apropiadamente el alcance de dicho impacto, se requiere de un ejercicio conjunto entre los especialistas de las disciplinas involucradas. La comunidad científica internacional viene desarrollando diversos conjuntos de datos para el estudio de la variabilidad y del cambio climático, e ideando estrategias apropiadas para su tratamiento. Sin embargo, se observa una tendencia disciplinaria, hacia el uso de una única fuente de datos climáticos, ya sea por simplicidad o porque cumple con los requisitos de resolución o disponibilidad en el formato deseado. En este sentido, los climatólogos observan con preocupación el uso acrítico de las bases de datos climáticos. A partir de esta preocupación, surge este artículo que tiene como objetivo describir tanto los alcances como las limitaciones de las bases de datos disponibles. Además, se aborda la problemática de la incertidumbre en las proyecciones climáticas y se proporciona información sobre cómo utilizar los datos climáticos para llevar a cabo experimentos relacionados con la distribución de especies, teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre inherente a los datos. Se destaca la importancia de realizar múltiples experimentos conducidos por N-proyecciones climáticas independientes, y de utilizar herramientas estadísticas para concluir sobre la base de una serie de posibles soluciones.
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